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Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Fakel
Fakel
Preview
15:00
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
5/15/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Fakel Stadium
Big match
45%
Fakel
model favours
45%28%27%
1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel45%
×Draw28%
Krylia Sovetov27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
1.35
Krylia Sovetov
0.99

Fakel creates 36% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 105 away

creates per match

Fakel
0.89
Krylia Sovetov
1.02

allows per match

Fakel
0.96
Krylia Sovetov
1.81

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
73%
Fakel or Krylia Sovetov
72%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
55%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
21%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
74%
Fakel 2+ goals
39%
Fakel 3+ goals
15%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
63%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
26%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
62%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 0.89 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + Fakel defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fakel scores more
45%
level
28%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
27%

Fakel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Fakel
LDWWD
Sovetov
LLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fakel host Krylia Sovetov

May 15, 2027: Fakel take on Krylia Sovetov in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fakel host Krylia Sovetov at Fakel Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.