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Fakel vs CSKA Moscow — Premier League 2018

Fakel
Fakel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
12/8/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Stadion Fakel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel31%
×Draw30%
CSKA Moscow40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
0.98
CSKA Moscow
1.15

CSKA Moscow creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 120 away

creates per match

Fakel
0.89
CSKA Moscow
1.34

allows per match

Fakel
0.96
CSKA Moscow
1.06

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
60%
Fakel or CSKA Moscow
70%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
69%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
11%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
62%
Fakel 2+ goals
26%
Fakel 3+ goals
8%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
68%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
32%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
44%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 0.89 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Fakel defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fakel scores more
31%
level
30%
CSKA Moscow scores more
40%

CSKA Moscow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Fakel 0–1 CSKA Moscow

CSKA Moscow beat Fakel 1-0 in Premier League on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Fakel in Voronezh.