Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fakel Voronezh vs CSKA Moscow — Cup 2019

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
10/4/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 4Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fakel Voronezh19%
×Draw25%
CSKA Moscow56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
0.81
CSKA Moscow
1.58

CSKA Moscow creates 95% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.71
CSKA Moscow
1.58

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.57
CSKA Moscow
0.92

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
44%
Fakel Voronezh or CSKA Moscow
75%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
81%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
6%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
56%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
19%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
5%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
79%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
47%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
26%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.71 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

CSKA Moscow attack 1.58 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
19%
level
25%
CSKA Moscow scores more
56%

CSKA Moscow at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Fakel Voronezh 1–1 CSKA Moscow

Fakel Voronezh and CSKA Moscow drew 1-1 in Cup on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.