Fakel 1–2 Akron: Result & Stats | Cup

Fakel

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Akron

E. Markov 5'

M. Palienko 70' (pen)

A. Dmitriev 10'

8/15/2024

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 2Stadion Fakel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fakel33%

×Draw25%

Akron42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FakelExpected goals in this matchAkron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.56

Fakel

1.35

Akron

1.56

Akron creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

0.71

creates per match

1.55

1.57

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fakel

0.71

Akron

1.55

allows per match

Fakel

1.57

Akron

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par

Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Akron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fakel or draw

58%

Fakel or Akron

75%

Draw or Akron

67%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+

15%

Akron wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals

74%

Fakel 2+ goals

39%

Fakel 3+ goals

15%

Akron 1+ goals

79%

Akron 2+ goals

46%

Akron 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)

44%

Akron (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Akron away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 0.71 + Akron defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Akron attack 1.55 + Fakel defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fakel scores more

33%

level

25%

Akron scores more

42%

Akron at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

E. Markov

10'

A. Dmitriev

13'

V. MasternoyGoal Disallowed - offside

46'

M. Dziov← M. Brahimi

46'

N. Moțpan← E. Markov

46'

K. Appaev← S. Bryzgalov

46'

K. Danilin← V. Khubulov

59'

D. Mertens← T. Cele

61'

M. Palienko← M. Kuzmin

61'

S. Bakaev← A. Dmitriev

61'

I. Timoshenko← Gilson Benchimol

70'

M. PalienkoPenalty

80'

V. Ilyin← L. Bagatelia

Fakel

Akron

78

80

19

22

6

▼

Kuzmin

65

Moskviche

14

▼

Khubulov

25

Esanov

11

▼

Benchimol

69

⚽

▼

Dmitriev

71

Pestryako

1

Gudiev

92

▼

22

88

2

5

▼

Cele

7

▼

Brahimi

77

▼

Bagatelia

64

Ivlev

20

⚽

▼

Markov

17

Giorgobia

Manager: D. Pyatibratov

46'▲M. Dziov←▼M. Brahimi

46'▲N. Moțpan←▼E. Markov

46'▲K. Appaev←▼S. Bryzgalov

59'▲D. Mertens←▼T. Cele

80'▲V. Ilyin←▼L. Bagatelia

Fakel substitutes

4Dziov11Moțpan14Appaev6Mertens15Ilyin10Alshin21Shchetinin24Chikhradze33Kvekveskiri35Dorovskikh98Vasin

Manager: Z. Tedeev

46'▲K. Danilin←▼V. Khubulov

61'▲M. Palienko←▼M. Kuzmin

61'▲S. Bakaev←▼A. Dmitriev

61'▲I. Timoshenko←▼Gilson Benchimol

Akron substitutes

7Danilin10Palienko17Bakaev99Timoshenko1Volkov4Vitor5Đurasović15Lončar23Dimoski26Escoval77Savichev97Gribov

Fakel 1 – 2 Akron

Akron beat Fakel 2-1 in Cup on August 15, 2024.

Goals: E. Markov (5'), A. Dmitriev (10'), M. Palienko (70' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Fakel in Voronezh.

Fakel vs Akron — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Fakel 1 – 2 Akron