Akron 2–0 Fakel: Result & Stats | Cup

Akron

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel

S. Gribov 63'

V. Khubulov 50'

9/18/2024

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 3Solidarnost Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Akron55%

×Draw25%

Fakel20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchFakel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.83

Akron

1.56

Fakel

0.83

Akron creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

0.73

0.93

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Akron

1.86

Fakel

0.73

allows per match

Akron

0.93

Fakel

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Fakel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Akron or draw

80%

Akron or Fakel

75%

Draw or Fakel

45%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

29%

Fakel wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

79%

Akron 2+ goals

46%

Akron 3+ goals

21%

Fakel 1+ goals

56%

Fakel 2+ goals

20%

Fakel 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

73%

Fakel (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Fakel away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.86 + Fakel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fakel attack 0.73 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Akron scores more

55%

level

25%

Fakel scores more

20%

Akron at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Ivlev

46'

R. Fernández← B. Dimoski

46'

I. Kvekveskiri← A. Ivlev

46'

V. Masternoy← I. Kalinin

50'

V. Khubulov

55'

V. Khubulov

57'

T. Cele← N. Giorgobiani

57'

D. Mertens← M. Shchetinin

62'

A. Dmitriev← A. Dzyuba

62'

S. Gribov← Gilson Benchimol

63'

S. Gribov

70'

M. Boldyrev← V. Khubulov

74'

K. Simonov← L. Bagatelia

77'

A. Galoyan← M. Palienko

90'

D. Mertens

Akron

Fakel

1

Gudiev

92

Bryzgalov

13

▼

Kalinin

72

Senhadji

11

Moțpan

21

▼

Shchetini

8

Bagamaev

77

▼

Bagatelia

64

▼

Ivlev

9

Kashtanov

17

▼

Giorgobia

1

Volkov

80

Bardybakh

23

▼

Dimoski

19

Bokoev

22

Baranok

10

▼

Palienko

65

Moskviche

14

⚽

▼

Khubulov

25

Esanov

24

▼

Dzyuba

11

▼

Benchimol

Manager: Z. Tedeev

46'▲R. Fernández←▼B. Dimoski

62'▲A. Dmitriev←▼A. Dzyuba

62'▲S. Gribov←▼Gilson Benchimol

70'▲M. Boldyrev←▼V. Khubulov

77'▲A. Galoyan←▼M. Palienko

Akron substitutes

21Fernández69Dmitriev97Gribov91Boldyrev20Galoyan4Vitor5Đurasović6Kuzmin15Lončar71Pestryakov78Vasyutin82Alekhin

Manager: D. Pyatibratov

46'▲I. Kvekveskiri←▼A. Ivlev

46'▲V. Masternoy←▼I. Kalinin

57'▲T. Cele←▼N. Giorgobiani

57'▲D. Mertens←▼M. Shchetinin

74'▲K. Simonov←▼L. Bagatelia

Fakel substitutes

33Kvekveskiri88Masternoy5Cele6Mertens96Simonov22Yurganov31Belenov98Vasin

Match Recap: Akron vs Fakel

Akron beat Fakel 2-0 in Cup on September 18, 2024.

Goals: V. Khubulov (50'), S. Gribov (63').

The match was played at Solidarnost Samara Arena in Samara.

Akron vs Fakel — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Akron vs Fakel