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Fakel Voronezh vs Krylya Sovetov — Cup 2019

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
9/29/2022CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 3Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fakel Voronezh29%
×Draw25%
Krylya Sovetov46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.19
Krylya Sovetov
1.55

Krylya Sovetov creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.71
Krylya Sovetov
1.53

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.57
Krylya Sovetov
1.68

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
54%
Fakel Voronezh or Krylya Sovetov
75%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
71%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
12%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
70%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
33%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
12%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
79%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
46%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
39%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.71 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.19

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
29%
level
25%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
46%

Krylya Sovetov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel Voronezh vs Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Fakel Voronezh 1-0 in Cup on September 29, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.