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Fakel Voronezh vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
3/14/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Fakel Voronezh46%
×Draw27%
Chertanovo Moscow27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.36
Chertanovo Moscow
0.97

Fakel Voronezh creates 40% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 53 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.17
Chertanovo Moscow
1.21

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.73
Chertanovo Moscow
1.55

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
73%
Fakel Voronezh or Chertanovo Moscow
73%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
54%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
22%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
74%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
39%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
16%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
62%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
25%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
63%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 89 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.17 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
46%
level
27%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
27%

Fakel Voronezh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel Voronezh vs Chertanovo Moscow

Fakel Voronezh beat Chertanovo Moscow 4-1 in First League on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.