Chertanovo Moscow 0–3 Fakel Voronezh

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fakel Voronezh

I. Mazurov 79'

A. Nikitin 68'

R. Akbashev 45+3'

9/19/2020

First League · Round 10Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow39%

×Draw26%

Fakel Voronezh35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.27

Chertanovo Moscow

1.35

Fakel Voronezh

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 88 away

1.37

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.37

Fakel Voronezh

1.22

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.33

Fakel Voronezh

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

65%

Chertanovo Moscow or Fakel Voronezh

74%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

61%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

18%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

74%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

39%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

15%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

72%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

36%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

53%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.32 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.37 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.22 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

39%

level

26%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

35%

Chertanovo Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

N. Pershin← I. Kamyshev

28'

33'

45'

45+3'

53'

56'

I. Molteninov← D. Velikorodny

60'

M. Grigorjev← O. Dmitriev

64'

I. Mazurov← D. Korobov

68'

A. Nikitin

69'

M. Saveljev← A. Nadolskiy

71'

N. Suleymanov← E. Rudkovskiy

78'

S. Bryzgalov← A. Nikitin

79'

I. Mazurov

84'

Maksim Grigoriev

90'

A. Razborov← M. Zemskov

Chertanovo4-3-3

Fakel4-1-4-1

15

⚽

▼

Nikitin

34

▼

Dmitriev

88

Masternoy

87

▼

Korobov

8

▼

Zemskov

13

Drozdov

10

⚽

26

25

4

1

81

19

▼

4

3

13

5

▼

Kamyshev

10

▼

66

11

68

21

▼

Velikorod

Manager: A. Dmitriev

26'▲N. Pershin←▼I. Kamyshev

56'▲I. Molteninov←▼D. Velikorodny

69'▲M. Saveljev←▼A. Nadolskiy

71'▲N. Suleymanov←▼E. Rudkovskiy

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

46Pershin28Molteninov14Saveljev6Suleymanov16Yavorskiy27Efremov30Lyakhov31Zavezen55Radionov

Manager: O. Vasilenko

60'▲M. Grigorjev←▼O. Dmitriev

64'▲I. Mazurov←▼D. Korobov

78'▲S. Bryzgalov←▼A. Nikitin

90'▲A. Razborov←▼M. Zemskov

Fakel Voronezh substitutes

7Grigorjev11Mazurov92Bryzgalov22Razborov5Solovjev14Pervushin17Pukhov23Glushchenkov30Kortnev56Sedov

First League: Chertanovo Moscow 0–3 Fakel Voronezh

Fakel Voronezh beat Chertanovo Moscow 3-0 in First League on September 19, 2020.

Goals: R. Akbashev (45+3'), A. Nikitin (68'), I. Mazurov (79').

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.

Chertanovo Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Chertanovo Moscow 0–3 Fakel Voronezh