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Fakel Voronezh vs Baltika — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
7/10/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Fakel Voronezh36%
×Draw30%
Baltika34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.08
Baltika
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 109 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
66%
Fakel Voronezh or Baltika
70%
Draw or Baltika
64%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
14%
Baltika wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
66%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
29%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
10%
Baltika 1+ goals
64%
Baltika 2+ goals
28%
Baltika 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
52%
Baltika (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Baltika attack 1.34 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
36%
level
30%
Baltika scores more
34%

Fakel Voronezh at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Fakel Voronezh 3–3 Baltika

Fakel Voronezh and Baltika drew 3-3 in First League on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.