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Baltika vs Fakel Voronezh — Premier League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
8/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baltika52%
×Draw27%
Fakel Voronezh22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.47
Fakel Voronezh
0.85

Baltika creates 73% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
Fakel Voronezh
0.74

allows per match

Baltika
0.97
Fakel Voronezh
1.67

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
78%
Baltika or Fakel Voronezh
73%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
48%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
26%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
77%
Baltika 2+ goals
43%
Baltika 3+ goals
18%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
57%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
21%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
70%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.74 + Baltika defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baltika scores more
52%
level
27%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
22%

Baltika at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika vs Fakel Voronezh

Baltika beat Fakel Voronezh 2-1 in Premier League on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.