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Fakel Voronezh vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2026

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
I. Lebedenko 34'
S. Tsveiba 13'
M. Afanasyev 10'
A. Dashaev 38'
A. Batyutin 32'
11/18/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov (Voronezh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Fakel Voronezh45%
×Draw29%
Avangard Kursk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.24
Avangard Kursk
0.86

Fakel Voronezh creates 44% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 40 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.18
Avangard Kursk
0.97

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.76
Avangard Kursk
1.30

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
74%
Fakel Voronezh or Avangard Kursk
71%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
55%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
20%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
71%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
35%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
13%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
58%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
21%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
64%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.76 · 88 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.18 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Avangard Kursk attack 0.97 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
45%
level
29%
Avangard Kursk scores more
26%

Fakel Voronezh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Afanasyev
13'
S. Tsveiba
32'
A. Batyutin
34'
I. Lebedenko
38'
A. Dashaev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Fakel Voronezh 3–2 Avangard Kursk

Fakel Voronezh beat Avangard Kursk 3-2 in First League on November 18, 2018.

Goals: M. Afanasyev (10'), S. Tsveiba (13'), A. Batyutin (32'), I. Lebedenko (34'), A. Dashaev (38').

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov (Voronezh).