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Avangard Kursk vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2026

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
CANC
00:00
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
3/22/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Avangard Kursk40%
×Draw26%
Fakel Voronezh34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.38
Fakel Voronezh
1.25

Avangard Kursk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 86 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.42
Fakel Voronezh
1.23

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.26
Fakel Voronezh
1.34

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
66%
Avangard Kursk or Fakel Voronezh
74%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
60%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
19%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
75%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
40%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
16%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
71%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
36%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
54%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.34 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.42 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.23 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
40%
level
26%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
34%

Avangard Kursk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avangard Kursk face Fakel Voronezh (First League)

First League returns with Avangard Kursk hosting Fakel Voronezh. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Avangard Kursk host Fakel Voronezh at Stadion Trudovye Reservy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.