Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fakel II vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League - Group 3 2020

Fakel II
Fakel II
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
7/18/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II24%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Vladivostok52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel II
1.03
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.64

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Fakel II
0.90
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.45

allows per match

Fakel II
1.83
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.16

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw
48%
Fakel II or Dinamo Vladivostok
75%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
76%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+
9%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals
64%
Fakel II 2+ goals
28%
Fakel II 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)
32%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fakel II scores more
24%
level
25%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
52%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel II vs Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Vladivostok beat Fakel II 6-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.