Dinamo Vladivostok 3–0 Fakel II: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vladivostok

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fakel II

9/30/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok68%

×Draw20%

Fakel II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VladivostokExpected goals in this matchFakel II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.69

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.99

Fakel II

0.69

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 188% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

1.61

creates per match

0.53

0.84

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.61

Fakel II

0.53

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

0.84

Fakel II

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Fakel II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw

88%

Dinamo Vladivostok or Fakel II

80%

Draw or Fakel II

32%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

42%

Fakel II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

59%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

32%

Fakel II 1+ goals

50%

Fakel II 2+ goals

15%

Fakel II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

85%

Fakel II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.99

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

68%

level

20%

Fakel II scores more

12%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff