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Fakel II vs Avangard Kursk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Fakel II
Fakel II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
8/20/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II29%
×Draw25%
Avangard Kursk46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel II
1.20
Avangard Kursk
1.56

Avangard Kursk creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

Fakel II
0.90
Avangard Kursk
1.28

allows per match

Fakel II
1.83
Avangard Kursk
1.49

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw
54%
Fakel II or Avangard Kursk
75%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
71%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+
12%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals
70%
Fakel II 2+ goals
34%
Fakel II 3+ goals
12%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
79%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
46%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)
39%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.20

Avangard Kursk attack 1.28 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fakel II scores more
29%
level
25%
Avangard Kursk scores more
46%

Avangard Kursk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Fakel II 1–2 Avangard Kursk

Avangard Kursk beat Fakel II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.