Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avangard Kursk vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel II
Fakel II
4/23/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Avangard Kursk65%
×Draw21%
Fakel II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.94
Fakel II
0.78

Avangard Kursk creates 149% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.50
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.02
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
86%
Avangard Kursk or Fakel II
79%
Draw or Fakel II
35%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
39%
Fakel II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
86%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
58%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
30%
Fakel II 1+ goals
54%
Fakel II 2+ goals
18%
Fakel II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
82%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.50 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.94

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
65%
level
21%
Fakel II scores more
14%

Avangard Kursk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Avangard Kursk 0–0 Fakel II

Avangard Kursk and Fakel II drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.