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Fakel II vs Arsenal Tula II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Fakel II
Fakel II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
9/10/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II32%
×Draw25%
Arsenal Tula II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel II
1.29
Arsenal Tula II
1.51

Arsenal Tula II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

creates per match

Fakel II
0.90
Arsenal Tula II
1.19

allows per match

Fakel II
1.83
Arsenal Tula II
1.68

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Arsenal Tula II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw
58%
Fakel II or Arsenal Tula II
75%
Draw or Arsenal Tula II
68%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+
14%
Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals
72%
Fakel II 2+ goals
37%
Fakel II 3+ goals
14%
Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
78%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
44%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)
43%
Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Arsenal Tula II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.19 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fakel II scores more
32%
level
25%
Arsenal Tula II scores more
42%

Arsenal Tula II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel II vs Arsenal Tula II

Arsenal Tula II beat Fakel II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.