Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arsenal Tula II vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fakel II
Fakel II
11/10/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Arsenal Tula II61%
×Draw22%
Fakel II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
1.94
Fakel II
0.91

Arsenal Tula II creates 113% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
83%
Arsenal Tula II or Fakel II
78%
Draw or Fakel II
39%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
37%
Fakel II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
86%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
58%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
30%
Fakel II 1+ goals
60%
Fakel II 2+ goals
23%
Fakel II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
78%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.94

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
61%
level
22%
Fakel II scores more
17%

Arsenal Tula II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula II vs Fakel II

Arsenal Tula II beat Fakel II 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on November 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.