Fajr Sepasi 2–0 Esteghlal Mollasani: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Esteghlal Mollasani

11/9/2023

Azadegan League · Round 11Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Fajr Sepasi53%

×Draw28%

Esteghlal Mollasani18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Mollasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.66

Fajr Sepasi

1.35

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.66

Fajr Sepasi creates 105% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 68 away

1.40

creates per match

0.82

0.50

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.40

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.82

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

82%

Fajr Sepasi or Esteghlal Mollasani

72%

Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani

47%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

26%

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

74%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

39%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

15%

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals

48%

Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals

14%

Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

75%

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

53%

level

28%

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more

18%

Fajr Sepasi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff