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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
0 – 3
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
5/19/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani34%
×Draw32%
Fajr Sepasi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.95
Fajr Sepasi
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
66%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Fajr Sepasi
68%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
66%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
13%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
61%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
25%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
7%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
61%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
24%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
50%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
34%
level
32%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
34%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Esteghlal Mollasani 3-0 in Azadegan League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.