Fajr Sepasi 4–0 Damash Gilanian: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Damash Gilanian

5/12/2025

Azadegan League · Round 33Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Fajr Sepasi63%

×Draw25%

Damash Gilanian12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchDamash Gilanian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.49

Fajr Sepasi

1.52

Damash Gilanian

0.49

Fajr Sepasi creates 210% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 65 away

1.40

creates per match

0.49

0.50

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.40

Damash Gilanian

0.49

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Damash Gilanian

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Damash Gilanian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

88%

Fajr Sepasi or Damash Gilanian

75%

Draw or Damash Gilanian

37%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

34%

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

78%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

45%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

20%

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals

39%

Damash Gilanian 2+ goals

9%

Damash Gilanian 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

84%

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

63%

level

25%

Damash Gilanian scores more

12%

Fajr Sepasi at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff