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Damash Gilanian vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
FT
1 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
7/13/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Damash Gilanian32%
×Draw32%
Fajr Sepasi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damash Gilanian
0.89
Fajr Sepasi
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 98 away

creates per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Damash Gilanian
0.90
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw
64%
Damash Gilanian or Fajr Sepasi
68%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
68%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
11%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
59%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
22%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
6%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
62%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
25%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
47%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more
32%
level
32%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
36%

Fajr Sepasi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Damash Gilanian 1–1 Fajr Sepasi

Damash Gilanian and Fajr Sepasi drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on July 13, 2020.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.