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Fajr Sepasi vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 1
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
B. Houshmand 38'
S. Bagher Pasand 8'
11/10/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Shahid Dastgheib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Fajr Sepasi63%
×Draw25%
Damash Gilanian12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.56
Damash Gilanian
0.51

Fajr Sepasi creates 206% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 61 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Damash Gilanian
0.51

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Damash Gilanian
1.61

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
88%
Fajr Sepasi or Damash Gilanian
75%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
37%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
35%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
79%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
46%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
21%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
40%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
9%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
84%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.61 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Damash Gilanian attack 0.51 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
63%
level
25%
Damash Gilanian scores more
12%

Fajr Sepasi at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Bagher Pasand
38'
B. Houshmand

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs Damash Gilanian

Fajr Sepasi and Damash Gilanian drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 10, 2019.

Goals: S. Bagher Pasand (8'), B. Houshmand (38').

The match was played at Shahid Dastgheib Stadium in Shiraz.