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Fajr Sepasi vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
3/16/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Fajr Sepasi62%
×Draw25%
Chooka Talesh13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.56
Chooka Talesh
0.55

Fajr Sepasi creates 184% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.49
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
87%
Fajr Sepasi or Chooka Talesh
75%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
38%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
34%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
79%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
46%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
21%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
42%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
11%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
83%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
62%
level
25%
Chooka Talesh scores more
13%

Fajr Sepasi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 3–0 Chooka Talesh

Fajr Sepasi beat Chooka Talesh 3-0 in Azadegan League on March 16, 2023.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.