Chooka Talesh 1–2 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Chooka Talesh

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Fajr Sepasi

10/18/2022

Azadegan League · Round 9Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh31%

×Draw29%

Fajr Sepasi39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chooka TaleshExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.15

Chooka Talesh

1.00

Fajr Sepasi

1.15

Fajr Sepasi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 98 away

1.15

creates per match

1.03

1.27

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Chooka Talesh

1.15

Fajr Sepasi

1.03

allows per match

Chooka Talesh

1.27

Fajr Sepasi

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw

61%

Chooka Talesh or Fajr Sepasi

71%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

69%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+

12%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals

63%

Chooka Talesh 2+ goals

26%

Chooka Talesh 3+ goals

8%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

68%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

32%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)

45%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more

31%

level

29%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

39%

Fajr Sepasi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff