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Fajr Sepasi vs Be'sat Kermanshah — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
H. Shahabi 27'
11/16/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Fajr Sepasi55%
×Draw29%
Be'sat Kermanshah15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.29
Be'sat Kermanshah
0.53

Fajr Sepasi creates 143% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Be'sat Kermanshah
0.55

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Be'sat Kermanshah
1.06

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Be'sat Kermanshah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
85%
Fajr Sepasi or Be'sat Kermanshah
71%
Draw or Be'sat Kermanshah
45%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
26%
Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
72%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
37%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
14%
Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
41%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
10%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
78%
Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Be'sat Kermanshah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.55 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
55%
level
29%
Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
15%

Fajr Sepasi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
H. Shahabi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Be'sat Kermanshah

Fajr Sepasi beat Be'sat Kermanshah 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 16, 2024.

Goals: H. Shahabi (27').

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.