Be'sat Kermanshah 0–1 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Be'sat Kermanshah

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fajr Sepasi

S. Jafari 45' (pen)

4/11/2025

Azadegan League · Round 28Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Be'sat Kermanshah34%

×Draw34%

Fajr Sepasi31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Be'sat KermanshahExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

0.81

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.86

Fajr Sepasi

0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 83 away

0.91

creates per match

1.04

0.58

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.91

Fajr Sepasi

1.04

allows per match

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.58

Fajr Sepasi

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be'sat Kermanshah ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Be'sat Kermanshah or draw

69%

Be'sat Kermanshah or Fajr Sepasi

66%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

66%

Winning margin

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+

12%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals

58%

Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals

21%

Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals

6%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

56%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

19%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)

52%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be'sat Kermanshah at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.82 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.91 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.04 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more

34%

level

34%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

31%

Be'sat Kermanshah at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Be'sat Kermanshah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

S. JafariPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff