Fajr Sepasi 1–1 Ario Eslamshahr: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ario Eslamshahr

4/15/2024

Azadegan League · Round 27Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fajr Sepasi47%

×Draw32%

Ario Eslamshahr21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchArio Eslamshahr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.64

Fajr Sepasi

1.12

Ario Eslamshahr

0.64

Fajr Sepasi creates 75% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 51 away

1.40

creates per match

0.78

0.50

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.40

Ario Eslamshahr

0.78

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Ario Eslamshahr

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

79%

Fajr Sepasi or Ario Eslamshahr

68%

Draw or Ario Eslamshahr

53%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

20%

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

67%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

31%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

10%

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals

47%

Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals

14%

Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

69%

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.12

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

47%

level

32%

Ario Eslamshahr scores more

21%

Fajr Sepasi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff