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Ario Eslamshahr vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
1/30/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr35%
×Draw36%
Fajr Sepasi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ario Eslamshahr
0.82
Fajr Sepasi
0.72

Ario Eslamshahr creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.78
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.41
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw
71%
Ario Eslamshahr or Fajr Sepasi
64%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
65%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
12%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
56%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
20%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
5%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
51%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
16%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
55%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more
35%
level
36%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
29%

Ario Eslamshahr at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Ario Eslamshahr 1–0 Fajr Sepasi

Ario Eslamshahr beat Fajr Sepasi 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 30, 2025.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Eslamshahr.