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Berazategui vs Talleres Remedios — Primera C 2014

Berazategui
Berazategui
FT
0 – 2
Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
10/12/2014Primera CPrimera C · Round 12Estadio Norman Lee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Berazategui20%
×Draw26%
Talleres Remedios53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berazategui
0.80
Talleres Remedios
1.48

Talleres Remedios creates 85% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 4 away

creates per match

Berazategui
1.34
Talleres Remedios
2.00

allows per match

Berazategui
0.96
Talleres Remedios
0.25

finishing

Berazategui+0.00on par
Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berazategui ↓

Talleres Remedios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Berazategui or draw
47%
Berazategui or Talleres Remedios
74%
Draw or Talleres Remedios
80%

Winning margin

Berazategui wins by 2+
6%
Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Berazategui 1+ goals
55%
Berazategui 2+ goals
19%
Berazategui 3+ goals
5%
Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
77%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
43%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Berazategui (draw refunded)
28%
Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berazategui at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.96 · 142 matches

Talleres Remedios away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berazategui attack 1.34 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.80

Talleres Remedios attack 2.00 + Berazategui defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Berazategui scores more
20%
level
26%
Talleres Remedios scores more
53%

Talleres Remedios at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Talleres Remedios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Berazategui 0–2 Talleres Remedios

Talleres Remedios beat Berazategui 2-0 in Primera C on October 12, 2014.

The match was played at Estadio Norman Lee in Berazategui, Provincia de Buenos Aires.