Berazategui 1–0 Talleres Remedios: Result & Stats

Berazategui

FT

1 – 0

Talleres Remedios

3/1/2014

Primera C · Round 24Estadio Norman Lee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Berazategui32%

×Draw30%

Talleres Remedios38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BerazateguiExpected goals in this matchTalleres Remedios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.10

Berazategui

0.98

Talleres Remedios

1.10

Talleres Remedios creates 12% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

0.95

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Berazategui

1.33

Talleres Remedios

1.25

allows per match

Berazategui

0.95

Talleres Remedios

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berazategui+0.00on par

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berazategui ↓

Talleres Remedios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Berazategui or draw

62%

Berazategui or Talleres Remedios

70%

Draw or Talleres Remedios

68%

Winning margin

Berazategui wins by 2+

12%

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Berazategui 1+ goals

62%

Berazategui 2+ goals

26%

Berazategui 3+ goals

8%

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals

67%

Talleres Remedios 2+ goals

30%

Talleres Remedios 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Berazategui (draw refunded)

46%

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berazategui at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

Talleres Remedios away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berazategui attack 1.33 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Talleres Remedios attack 1.25 + Berazategui defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Berazategui scores more

32%

level

30%

Talleres Remedios scores more

38%

Talleres Remedios at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Talleres Remedios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff