Fagiano Okayama 1–4 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

Fagiano Okayama

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Vissel Kobe

T. Kimura 62'

Y. Goke 88'

T. Ogihara 65' (pen)

K. Nagato 45'

D. Tagami 8' (OG)

4/5/2026

J1 League · Round 9City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Fagiano Okayama33%

×Draw25%

Vissel Kobe41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.50

Fagiano Okayama

1.32

Vissel Kobe

1.50

Vissel Kobe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.43

creates per match

1.61

1.38

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.43

Vissel Kobe

1.61

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.38

Vissel Kobe

1.22

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.49scores less

Vissel Kobe+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

59%

Fagiano Okayama or Vissel Kobe

75%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

67%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

15%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

73%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

38%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

15%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

78%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

44%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

45%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.43 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Vissel Kobe attack 1.61 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

33%

level

25%

Vissel Kobe scores more

41%

Vissel Kobe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

K. Nagato

Vissel Kobe · F

8.0

Match Events

2'

Yuta Goke

8'

D. TagamiOwn goal

11'

K. Abe← K. Kudo

24'

Masaya Matsumoto

45'

K. Nagato

46'

Lucao← K. Fujii

46'

K. Shirai← M. Matsumoto

46'

K. Uchino← Y. Osako

62'

T. Kimura↳ K. Shirai

64'

K. Kawano← K. Ichimi

65'

T. OgiharaPenalty

77'

Kamiya Yuta← T. Kimura

81'

Jean Patric← Diego

82'

Boniface Nduka

84'

Werik Popo←

88'

Y. Goke↳ Y. Ideguchi

90+1'

K. Yamauchi← Y. Goke

90+5'

N. Iino← M. Mitsuta

90+5'

K. Hamasaki← G. Sakai

90+2'

K. Yamada← Caetano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FagianoVissel

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots13

1.14Expected Goals (xG)2.15

6Corners6

15Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target7

4Off Target5

2Blocked1

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

306Total Passes379

210Accurate Passes272

69%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat Fagiano Okayama 4-1 in J1 League on April 5, 2026.

Goals: D. Tagami (8' o.g.), K. Nagato (45'), T. Kimura (62'), T. Ogihara (65' pen), Y. Goke (88').

Vissel Kobe controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.

Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe