Fagiano Okayama 1–2 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

Fagiano Okayama

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vissel Kobe

A. Esaka 90'

T. Miyashiro 64'

Erik 30'

7/20/2025

J1 League · Round 24City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Fagiano Okayama33%

×Draw25%

Vissel Kobe41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.50

Fagiano Okayama

1.32

Vissel Kobe

1.50

Vissel Kobe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.43

creates per match

1.61

1.38

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.43

Vissel Kobe

1.61

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.38

Vissel Kobe

1.22

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.49scores less

Vissel Kobe+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

59%

Fagiano Okayama or Vissel Kobe

75%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

67%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

15%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

73%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

38%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

15%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

78%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

44%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

45%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.43 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Vissel Kobe attack 1.61 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

33%

level

25%

Vissel Kobe scores more

41%

Vissel Kobe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

D. Sasaki

Vissel Kobe · F

7.7

Match Events

23'

Yuta Kamiya

30'

Erik

37'

E. Miyamoto← Kamiya Yuta

64'

T. Miyashiro↳ D. Sasaki

66'

M. Matsumoto← T. Yanagi

66'

Werik Popo← T. Kimura

73'

K. Yuruki← R. Hirose

77'

N. Browne← I. Fujita

77'

K. Ichimi← Lucao

81'

Y. Honda← K. Nagato

81'

R. Komatsu← Erik

87'

Y. Kuwasaki← G. Sakai

87'

K. Yamauchi← T. Miyashiro

90'

A. Esaka↳ K. Kudo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FagianoVissel

Overview

49%Possession51%

5Total Shots18

0.73Expected Goals (xG)2.72

6Corners4

14Fouls4

Shots

5Total Shots18

1On Target9

3Off Target8

1Blocked1

4Inside Box12

1Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

355Total Passes372

250Accurate Passes267

70%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

J1 League: Fagiano Okayama 1–2 Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat Fagiano Okayama 2-1 in J1 League on July 20, 2025.

Goals: Erik (30'), T. Miyashiro (64'), A. Esaka (90').

Vissel Kobe controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.

Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Fagiano Okayama 1–2 Vissel Kobe