Fagiano Okayama 2–1 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Fagiano Okayama

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Albirex Niigata

K. Ichimi 58' (pen)

A. Esaka 10'

M. Hasegawa 15'

5/18/2025

J1 League · Round 17City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Fagiano Okayama40%

×Draw26%

Albirex Niigata34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.27

Fagiano Okayama

1.38

Albirex Niigata

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

1.38

creates per match

1.20

1.35

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.38

Albirex Niigata

1.20

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.35

Albirex Niigata

1.38

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.50scores less

Albirex Niigata-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

66%

Fagiano Okayama or Albirex Niigata

74%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

60%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

18%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

75%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

40%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

16%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

72%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

36%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

53%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.38 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Albirex Niigata attack 1.20 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

40%

level

26%

Albirex Niigata scores more

34%

Fagiano Okayama at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Esaka

Fagiano Okayama · F

8.0

Match Events

10'

A. Esaka↳ R. Tabei

15'

M. Hasegawa

36'

Michael James Fitzgerald

58'

K. Hashimoto← Y. Horigome

58'

Y. Takagi← K. Kasai

58'

Y. Komi← J. Okumura

58'

K. IchimiPenalty

67'

H. Iwabuchi← T. Kimura

67'

Lucao← K. Ichimi

79'

K. Yamura← Y. Hoshi

79'

S. Ota← Danilo Gomes

81'

R. Takeuchi← R. Tabei

81'

Kamiya Yuta← A. Esaka

89'

K. Kudo← Y. Suzuki

90+2'

Yugo Tatsuta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FagianoAlbirex

Overview

44%Possession56%

21Total Shots7

3.16Expected Goals (xG)0.65

7Corners2

11Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots7

6On Target3

8Off Target2

7Blocked2

16Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

393Total Passes520

289Accurate Passes436

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1