Albirex Niigata 1–1 Fagiano Okayama: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fagiano Okayama

E. Shirai 67'

K. Ichimi 24'

10/4/2025

J1 League · Round 33Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Albirex Niigata44%

×Draw26%

Fagiano Okayama30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.16

Albirex Niigata

1.46

Fagiano Okayama

1.16

Albirex Niigata creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.36

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.26

Fagiano Okayama

0.96

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.36

Fagiano Okayama

1.67

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.19scores less

Fagiano Okayama+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

70%

Albirex Niigata or Fagiano Okayama

74%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

56%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

21%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

77%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

43%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

18%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

69%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

32%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

59%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 30 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.26 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Fagiano Okayama attack 0.96 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

44%

level

26%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

30%

Albirex Niigata at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

K. Ichimi

Fagiano Okayama · F

7.7

Match Events

24'

K. Ichimi↳ H. Motoyama

47'

Fumiya Hayakawa

56'

Lucao← T. Kimura

60'

A. Boudah← Y. Ono

61'

K. Hashimoto← Y. Horigome

67'

E. Shirai↳ J. Okumura

74'

M. Ohara← T. Shimamura

75'

Y. Suzuki← D. Tagami

75'

M. Matsumoto← H. Motoyama

75'

H. Iwabuchi← K. Ichimi

83'

Eiji Miyamoto

84'

J. Geria← F. Hayakawa

84'

K. Taniguchi← J. Okumura

88'

R. Takeuchi← E. Miyamoto

90+3'

Kento Hashimoto

90+7'

H. Uemura← T. Arai

90+2'

K. Fujii← A. Esaka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexFagiano

Overview

68%Possession32%

10Total Shots5

2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.97

4Corners5

11Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots5

2On Target1

2Off Target4

6Blocked0

7Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

517Total Passes234

408Accurate Passes138

79%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Fagiano Okayama

Albirex Niigata and Fagiano Okayama drew 1-1 in J1 League on October 4, 2025.

Goals: K. Ichimi (24'), E. Shirai (67').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (68%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.

Albirex Niigata vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Fagiano Okayama