Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fafe vs AD Marco 09 — Liga 3 2021

Fafe
Fafe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AD Marco 09
AD Marco 09
8/24/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 3Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fafe42%
×Draw30%
AD Marco 0928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
1.16
AD Marco 09
0.90

Fafe creates 29% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fafe
1.18
AD Marco 09
0.64

allows per match

Fafe
1.15
AD Marco 09
1.14

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
AD Marco 09+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

AD Marco 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
72%
Fafe or AD Marco 09
70%
Draw or AD Marco 09
58%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
18%
AD Marco 09 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
69%
Fafe 2+ goals
32%
Fafe 3+ goals
11%
AD Marco 09 1+ goals
59%
AD Marco 09 2+ goals
23%
AD Marco 09 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
60%
AD Marco 09 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

AD Marco 09 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 1.18 + AD Marco 09 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

AD Marco 09 attack 0.64 + Fafe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fafe scores more
42%
level
30%
AD Marco 09 scores more
28%

Fafe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fafe 0 – 0 AD Marco 09

Fafe and AD Marco 09 drew 0-0 in Liga 3 on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe in Fafe.