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AD Marco 09 vs Fafe — Liga 3 2021

AD Marco 09
AD Marco 09
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fafe
Fafe
4/18/2026Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Group - 8Municipal de Marco de Canaveses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

AD Marco 0938%
×Draw28%
Fafe34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Marco 09
1.22
Fafe
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 72 away

creates per match

AD Marco 09
1.00
Fafe
1.21

allows per match

AD Marco 09
1.07
Fafe
1.44

finishing

AD Marco 09+0.00on par
Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Marco 09 ↓

Fafe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AD Marco 09 or draw
66%
AD Marco 09 or Fafe
72%
Draw or Fafe
62%

Winning margin

AD Marco 09 wins by 2+
16%
Fafe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AD Marco 09 1+ goals
70%
AD Marco 09 2+ goals
34%
AD Marco 09 3+ goals
12%
Fafe 1+ goals
68%
Fafe 2+ goals
32%
Fafe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AD Marco 09 (draw refunded)
53%
Fafe (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Marco 09 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Marco 09 attack 1.00 + Fafe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Fafe attack 1.21 + AD Marco 09 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AD Marco 09 scores more
38%
level
28%
Fafe scores more
34%

AD Marco 09 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AD Marco 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: AD Marco 09 1–0 Fafe

AD Marco 09 beat Fafe 1-0 in Liga 3 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Municipal de Marco de Canaveses in Marco de Canaveses.