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FA Euro New York vs Cedar Stars Rush — USL League Two 2018

FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
FT
2 – 2
Cedar Stars Rush
Cedar Stars Rush
6/19/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 41Poly Prep Country Day School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FA Euro New York39%
×Draw25%
Cedar Stars Rush37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Euro New York
1.48
Cedar Stars Rush
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

creates per match

FA Euro New York
1.27
Cedar Stars Rush
1.65

allows per match

FA Euro New York
1.23
Cedar Stars Rush
1.70

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par
Cedar Stars Rush+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

Cedar Stars Rush →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw
63%
FA Euro New York or Cedar Stars Rush
75%
Draw or Cedar Stars Rush
61%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+
18%
Cedar Stars Rush wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals
77%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
43%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
19%
Cedar Stars Rush 1+ goals
76%
Cedar Stars Rush 2+ goals
42%
Cedar Stars Rush 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
51%
Cedar Stars Rush (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Cedar Stars Rush away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + Cedar Stars Rush defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cedar Stars Rush attack 1.65 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FA Euro New York scores more
39%
level
25%
Cedar Stars Rush scores more
37%

FA Euro New York at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FA Euro New York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FA Euro New York vs Cedar Stars Rush

FA Euro New York and Cedar Stars Rush drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Poly Prep Country Day School in New York City.