Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cedar Stars Rush vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

Cedar Stars Rush
Cedar Stars Rush
FT
1 – 3
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
7/9/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 65Capelli Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cedar Stars Rush54%
×Draw21%
FA Euro New York25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cedar Stars Rush
2.07
FA Euro New York
1.34

Cedar Stars Rush creates 54% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cedar Stars Rush
1.90
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

Cedar Stars Rush
1.52
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

Cedar Stars Rush+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cedar Stars Rush ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cedar Stars Rush or draw
75%
Cedar Stars Rush or FA Euro New York
79%
Draw or FA Euro New York
46%

Winning margin

Cedar Stars Rush wins by 2+
32%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cedar Stars Rush 1+ goals
87%
Cedar Stars Rush 2+ goals
61%
Cedar Stars Rush 3+ goals
34%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
74%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
39%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cedar Stars Rush (draw refunded)
69%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cedar Stars Rush at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cedar Stars Rush attack 1.90 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.07

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + Cedar Stars Rush defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cedar Stars Rush scores more
54%
level
21%
FA Euro New York scores more
25%

Cedar Stars Rush at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cedar Stars Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cedar Stars Rush vs FA Euro New York

FA Euro New York beat Cedar Stars Rush 3-1 in USL League Two on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Capelli Sport Complex in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.