FA 2000 1–2 Esbjerg: Result & Stats

FA 2000

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Esbjerg

O. Rimmen 3'

E. Holten 90+7'

E. Sorensen 54'

9/16/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 7Frederiksberg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FA 200029%

×Draw23%

Esbjerg47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FA 2000Expected goals in this matchEsbjerg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.78

FA 2000

1.36

Esbjerg

1.78

Esbjerg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 31 away

1.54

creates per match

2.03

1.54

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

FA 2000

1.54

Esbjerg

2.03

allows per match

FA 2000

1.54

Esbjerg

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Esbjerg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw

53%

FA 2000 or Esbjerg

77%

Draw or Esbjerg

71%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+

13%

Esbjerg wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals

74%

FA 2000 2+ goals

39%

FA 2000 3+ goals

16%

Esbjerg 1+ goals

83%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

53%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)

38%

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.54 + Esbjerg defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Esbjerg attack 2.03 + FA 2000 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FA 2000 scores more

29%

level

23%

Esbjerg scores more

47%

Esbjerg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

O. Rimmen

50'

I. Hassan

50'

I. Hassan

54'

E. Sorensen

90+7'

E. Holten

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff