Esbjerg 3–1 FA 2000: Result & Stats

Esbjerg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FA 2000

E. Sorensen 63'

E. Holten 59', 29'

H. Elsayed 90+2'

10/21/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esbjerg66%

×Draw19%

FA 200015%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsbjergExpected goals in this matchFA 2000

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.94

Esbjerg

2.19

FA 2000

0.94

Esbjerg creates 133% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

2.71

creates per match

0.77

1.10

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Esbjerg

2.71

FA 2000

0.77

allows per match

Esbjerg

1.10

FA 2000

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par

FA 2000+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

FA 2000 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw

85%

Esbjerg or FA 2000

81%

Draw or FA 2000

34%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+

42%

FA 2000 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals

89%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

64%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

37%

FA 2000 1+ goals

61%

FA 2000 2+ goals

24%

FA 2000 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

81%

FA 2000 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

FA 2000 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + FA 2000 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.19

FA 2000 attack 0.77 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Esbjerg scores more

66%

level

19%

FA 2000 scores more

15%

Esbjerg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

E. Holten

59'

E. Holten

63'

E. Sorensen

90+2'

H. Elsayed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff