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FA 2000 vs Avarta — 3. Division 2021

FA 2000
FA 2000
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Avarta
Avarta
C. Toftdahl 40'
M. Vinterberg 75'
5/30/20253. Division3. Division · Relegation Round - 8Frederiksberg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FA 200055%
×Draw25%
Avarta20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.60
Avarta
0.85

FA 2000 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

creates per match

FA 2000
1.60
Avarta
0.75

allows per match

FA 2000
0.96
Avarta
1.59

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
Avarta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Avarta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
80%
FA 2000 or Avarta
75%
Draw or Avarta
45%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
29%
Avarta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
80%
FA 2000 2+ goals
47%
FA 2000 3+ goals
22%
Avarta 1+ goals
57%
Avarta 2+ goals
21%
Avarta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
73%
Avarta (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

Avarta away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.60 + Avarta defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Avarta attack 0.75 + FA 2000 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FA 2000 scores more
55%
level
25%
Avarta scores more
20%

FA 2000 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
C. Toftdahl
70'
S. Kroner
75'
M. Vinterberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA 2000 1 – 1 Avarta

FA 2000 and Avarta drew 1-1 in 3. Division on May 30, 2025.

Goals: C. Toftdahl (40'), M. Vinterberg (75').

The match was played at Frederiksberg IP in Frederiksberg.