Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avarta vs FA 2000 — 3. Division 2021

Avarta
Avarta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FA 2000
FA 2000
V. Hogh 54'
9/29/20243. Division3. Division · Round 9Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Avarta29%
×Draw27%
FA 200044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avarta
1.06
FA 2000
1.36

FA 2000 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

creates per match

Avarta
1.09
FA 2000
1.31

allows per match

Avarta
1.41
FA 2000
1.04

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par
FA 2000+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

FA 2000 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Avarta or draw
56%
Avarta or FA 2000
73%
Draw or FA 2000
71%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+
11%
FA 2000 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals
65%
Avarta 2+ goals
29%
Avarta 3+ goals
9%
FA 2000 1+ goals
74%
FA 2000 2+ goals
39%
FA 2000 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)
40%
FA 2000 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

FA 2000 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 1.09 + FA 2000 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

FA 2000 attack 1.31 + Avarta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Avarta scores more
29%
level
27%
FA 2000 scores more
44%

FA 2000 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
V. Hogh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avarta vs FA 2000

FA 2000 beat Avarta 1-0 in 3. Division on September 29, 2024.

Goals: V. Hogh (54').

The match was played at Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park in Rødovre.