F91 Dudelange 0–2 FC Differdange 03: Result & Stats

F91 Dudelange

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Differdange 03

10/28/2023

Cup · Round of 32Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

F91 Dudelange9%

×Draw12%

FC Differdange 0379%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

F91 DudelangeExpected goals in this matchFC Differdange 03

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

3.48

F91 Dudelange

1.18

FC Differdange 03

3.48

FC Differdange 03 creates 195% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

4.64

2.33

allows per match

0.36

creates per match

F91 Dudelange

2.00

FC Differdange 03

4.64

allows per match

F91 Dudelange

2.33

FC Differdange 03

0.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

FC Differdange 03 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw

21%

F91 Dudelange or FC Differdange 03

88%

Draw or FC Differdange 03

91%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

3%

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

69%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

33%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

12%

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals

97%

FC Differdange 03 2+ goals

85%

FC Differdange 03 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

11%

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

FC Differdange 03 away — creates 4.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.00 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

FC Differdange 03 attack 4.64 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more

9%

level

12%

FC Differdange 03 scores more

79%

FC Differdange 03 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff