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F91 Dudelange vs Atert Bissen — Cup 2020

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atert Bissen
Atert Bissenadvanced
11/9/2025CupCup · Round of 32Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

F91 Dudelange24%
×Draw18%
Atert Bissen58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
1.79
Atert Bissen
2.81

Atert Bissen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.00
Atert Bissen
3.29

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
2.33
Atert Bissen
1.57

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Atert Bissen+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Atert Bissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
42%
F91 Dudelange or Atert Bissen
82%
Draw or Atert Bissen
76%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
11%
Atert Bissen wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
83%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
53%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
26%
Atert Bissen 1+ goals
94%
Atert Bissen 2+ goals
76%
Atert Bissen 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
29%
Atert Bissen (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Atert Bissen away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.00 + Atert Bissen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Atert Bissen attack 3.29 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
24%
level
18%
Atert Bissen scores more
58%

Atert Bissen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atert Bissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: F91 Dudelange vs Atert Bissen

F91 Dudelange and Atert Bissen drew 1-1 in Cup on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.