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F91 Dudelange vs AS Jeunesse Esch — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
12/7/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 15Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

F91 Dudelange54%
×Draw22%
AS Jeunesse Esch24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
1.95
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.25

F91 Dudelange creates 56% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.31

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.45

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
76%
F91 Dudelange or AS Jeunesse Esch
78%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
46%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
31%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
86%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
58%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
31%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
71%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
36%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
69%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.95

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.31 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
54%
level
22%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
24%

F91 Dudelange at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: F91 Dudelange 1–1 AS Jeunesse Esch

F91 Dudelange and AS Jeunesse Esch drew 1-1 in National Division on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.