AS Jeunesse Esch 2–0 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

AS Jeunesse Esch

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

F91 Dudelange

5/18/2025

National Division · Round 29Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch30%

×Draw23%

F91 Dudelange46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Jeunesse EschExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.76

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.38

F91 Dudelange

1.76

F91 Dudelange creates 28% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

1.62

creates per match

2.29

1.23

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.62

F91 Dudelange

2.29

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.23

F91 Dudelange

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw

54%

AS Jeunesse Esch or F91 Dudelange

77%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

70%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+

13%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals

75%

AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals

40%

AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals

16%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

83%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

52%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)

39%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more

30%

level

23%

F91 Dudelange scores more

46%

F91 Dudelange at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff