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Førde vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Førde
Førde
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Årdal
Årdal
Elias 79'
V. Savland 4'
E. Mittet 46'
6/22/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 12Førde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Førde61%
×Draw17%
Årdal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Førde
3.00
Årdal
1.81

Førde creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Førde
2.08
Årdal
1.54

allows per match

Førde
2.08
Årdal
3.92

finishing

Førde+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Førde ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Førde or draw
78%
Førde or Årdal
83%
Draw or Årdal
39%

Winning margin

Førde wins by 2+
42%
Årdal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Førde 1+ goals
95%
Førde 2+ goals
79%
Førde 3+ goals
56%
Årdal 1+ goals
84%
Årdal 2+ goals
54%
Årdal 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Førde (draw refunded)
73%
Årdal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Førde at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Årdal away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Førde attack 2.08 + Årdal defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.00

Årdal attack 1.54 + Førde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Førde scores more
61%
level
17%
Årdal scores more
22%

Førde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
V. Savland
46'
E. Mittet
79'
Elias

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Førde 2 – 1 Årdal

Førde beat Årdal 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 22, 2024.

Goals: V. Savland (4'), E. Mittet (46'), Elias (79').

The match was played at Førde Stadion in Førde.