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Årdal vs Førde — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Årdal
Årdal
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Førde
Førde
8/31/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 19Jotun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Årdal34%
×Draw19%
Førde47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
2.24
Førde
2.62

Førde creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Årdal
2.85
Førde
2.15

allows per match

Årdal
3.08
Førde
1.62

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Førde+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Førde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
53%
Årdal or Førde
81%
Draw or Førde
66%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
19%
Førde wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
89%
Årdal 2+ goals
65%
Årdal 3+ goals
38%
Førde 1+ goals
93%
Førde 2+ goals
73%
Førde 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
42%
Førde (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 2.85, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Førde away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 2.85 + Førde defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.24

Førde attack 2.15 + Årdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Årdal scores more
34%
level
19%
Førde scores more
47%

Førde at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Årdal vs Førde

Førde beat Årdal 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Jotun Stadion in Øvre Årdal.