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Ezeiza vs Defensores Glew — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Ezeiza
Ezeiza
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Defensores Glew
Defensores Glew
7/19/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 1Estadio Deportivo Coreano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ezeiza37%
×Draw28%
Defensores Glew36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ezeiza
1.19
Defensores Glew
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ezeiza
1.27
Defensores Glew
1.24

allows per match

Ezeiza
1.09
Defensores Glew
1.10

finishing

Ezeiza+0.00on par
Defensores Glew+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezeiza ↓

Defensores Glew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ezeiza or draw
64%
Ezeiza or Defensores Glew
72%
Draw or Defensores Glew
63%

Winning margin

Ezeiza wins by 2+
15%
Defensores Glew wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ezeiza 1+ goals
70%
Ezeiza 2+ goals
33%
Ezeiza 3+ goals
12%
Defensores Glew 1+ goals
69%
Defensores Glew 2+ goals
33%
Defensores Glew 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ezeiza (draw refunded)
51%
Defensores Glew (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezeiza at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Defensores Glew away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezeiza attack 1.27 + Defensores Glew defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Defensores Glew attack 1.24 + Ezeiza defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ezeiza scores more
37%
level
28%
Defensores Glew scores more
36%

Ezeiza at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ezeiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: Ezeiza 2–0 Defensores Glew

Ezeiza beat Defensores Glew 2-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Coreano in Lobos, Provincia de Buenos Aires.